“Jumping to conclusions is efficient if the conclusions are likely to be correct and the costs of an occasional mistake acceptable, and if the jump saves much time and effort. Jumping to conclusions is risky when the situation is unfamiliar, the stakes are high, and there is no time to collect more information.”

in Daniel Kahneman, Epistemology, Writers

-Daniel KahnemanThinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011, p.79.

* I found the last part of this sentence confusing–I thought it would make sense to jump to an intuitive conclusion if there was no time to collect further information (isn’t that when we most need to deploy our intuitive powers?). But upon further reflection Kahneman is right: if you have plenty of time to gather more information and jump to a erroneous conclusion you have well, time to collect more information and correct your mistake. On the other hand the costs are high if you jump to an erroneous conclusion and have no opportunity to adjust your thinking and/or actions afterword.

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